比爾蓋茨推薦《增長(zhǎng)》：一本關(guān)于增長(zhǎng)的書(shū)，各種意義上的增長(zhǎng)

After astronaut Rusty Schweickart looked down on Earth from space for the first time, he described a sense of awe that has become common to almost every space traveler since:“You realize that on that little blue and white thing there is everything that means anything to you, all history and music and poetry and art and death and birth and love, all of it on that little spot out there you can cover with your thumb.”NASA calls this realization“the overview effect.”No matter what country you’re from, you return from space with a feeling that our home is tiny, fragile, and something we need to protect.

在宇航員拉塞爾·施威卡特第一次從太空俯瞰地球后，他描述了一種此后幾乎每個(gè)太空旅行者都會(huì)有的敬畏感：“你意識(shí)到在那個(gè)藍(lán)白色的小東西上，有著一切對(duì)你有意義的事物——所有的歷史、音樂(lè)、詩(shī)歌、藝術(shù)、死亡、出生和愛(ài)，所有這些都來(lái)自那個(gè)可以用拇指遮住的小地方。”美國(guó)宇航局（NASA）稱之為“總觀效應(yīng)”。無(wú)論你來(lái)自哪個(gè)國(guó)家，你從太空返回時(shí)都會(huì)感覺(jué)到我們的家園既小又脆弱，我們需要保護(hù)它。

Anyone who reads the new book Growth, the newest of 39 brilliant books by one of my favorite thinkers, will come away with similar urgency. The author, the Czech-Canadian professor Vaclav Smil, approaches things from a scientist’s point of view, not an astronaut’s, but he reaches the same conclusion: Earth is fragile and“before it is too late, we should embark in earnest on the most fundamental existential [task] of making any future growth compatible with the long-term preservation of the only biosphere we have.”

任何讀過(guò)《增長(zhǎng)》（Growth,中文名暫譯）這本新書(shū)的讀者都會(huì)感受到類(lèi)似的緊迫感，這本書(shū)是我最喜歡的一位思想家最新創(chuàng)作的第39本杰作。作者捷克裔加拿大人瓦科拉夫·斯米爾教授，從科學(xué)家而非宇航員的角度看待事物，但得出了相同的結(jié)論：地球是脆弱的，“在一切都太遲之前，我們應(yīng)該認(rèn)真著手解決最根本的生存性[任務(wù)]，使未來(lái)的任何增長(zhǎng)都與對(duì)我們唯一擁有的生物圈的長(zhǎng)期保護(hù)相匹配。

Before I get into how Smil came to this conclusion, I should warn you. Although Growth is a brilliant synthesis of everything we can learn from patterns of growth in the natural and human-made world, it’s not for everyone. Long sections read like a textbook or engineering manual. (“A plot of the annual totals of passenger-kilometers flown by all US airlines between 1930 and 1980 produces a trajectory that is almost perfectly captured by the quartic regression (fourth order polynomial with r2=0.9998), and continuation of this growth pattern would have multiplied the 1980 level almost 10 times by 2015.”) And it has 99 pages of references!

在我介紹斯米爾如何得出這個(gè)結(jié)論之前，我應(yīng)該提醒你：雖然《增長(zhǎng)》神奇般地綜合了我們能在自然界和人造世界的增長(zhǎng)模式中學(xué)到的所有事物，但它并非適合所有人閱讀。書(shū)中大段的文字讀起來(lái)像是教科書(shū)或工程手冊(cè)。（“1930至1980年間，所有美國(guó)航空公司每年飛行的旅客-公里總數(shù)的曲線圖產(chǎn)生了一個(gè)幾乎完全由四次回歸（r2=0.9998的四階多項(xiàng)式）捕捉到的軌跡。如果延續(xù)這種增長(zhǎng)模式，1980年的數(shù)據(jù)到2015年將翻上10倍。”）而且它的參考文獻(xiàn)部分有99頁(yè)！

As Smil writes,“My aim is to illuminate varieties of growth in evolutionary and historical perspectives and hence to appreciate both the accomplishments and the limits of growth in modern civilization… Simply put, this book deals in realities as it sets the growth of everything into long-term evolutionary and historical perspectives and does so in rigorous quantitative terms.”

斯米爾寫(xiě)道：“我的目標(biāo)是從進(jìn)化和歷史的角度闡明各種各樣的增長(zhǎng)，從而分析現(xiàn)代文明的成就和增長(zhǎng)極限……簡(jiǎn)單地說(shuō)，這本書(shū)落腳到了現(xiàn)實(shí)，因?yàn)樗鼘⒁磺惺挛锏脑鲩L(zhǎng)納入長(zhǎng)期的進(jìn)化和歷史的視角，輔以嚴(yán)格的量化方式。

When Smil says“the growth of everything,”he means everything. Chapter 1 introduces a lot of technical detail behind the three most common growth curves seen in our natural and built environments: linear, exponential, and hyperbolic. Even if you don’t like math, don’t let this chapter scare you off, because it makes a really important point: It destroys the idea that you can take an early growth curve for a particular development—the uptake of the smartphone, for example—and use it as the basis for predicting the future. Yes, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore made a surprisingly accurate prediction about the exponential growth in the number of transistors on a chip. But even that“l(fā)aw”is likely reaching the end of its useful life. Transistors are now so small, we’re running into problems making them even smaller.

當(dāng)斯米爾說(shuō)“萬(wàn)物的增長(zhǎng)”時(shí)，他指的是所有事物。第一章介紹了自然環(huán)境和建筑環(huán)境中常見(jiàn)的三種增長(zhǎng)曲線（線性、指數(shù)和雙曲線）背后的許多技術(shù)細(xì)節(jié)。即使你不喜歡數(shù)學(xué)，也不要被這一章嚇跑，因?yàn)樗岢隽艘粋€(gè)非常重要的觀點(diǎn)。它摧毀了這樣一種想法，即你可以使用在某樣特定的發(fā)展（例如智能手機(jī)的普及率）中看到的早期增長(zhǎng)曲線，并將其用作預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的基礎(chǔ)。是的，英特爾聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人戈登·摩爾，對(duì)芯片上晶體管數(shù)量的指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)做出了令人驚訝的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)。但即使是那種預(yù)測(cè)法則也可能會(huì)失效。晶體管現(xiàn)在很小，而我們現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)很難把它們?cè)斓酶×恕?/p>

The next few chapters are easier to follow. Chapter 2 is all about the growth of living systems—from microorganisms to sequoia forests, and from humans to dinosaurs. (By the way, did you know that the T. rex weighed only a bit more than a male African elephant, and a tapeworm can live 25 years?) My favorite part of this chapter was Smil’s discussion of food production, which is instructive for our foundation’s work in agriculture and does a good job of explaining what kinds of productivity gains are possible.

接下來(lái)的幾章更容易理解一些。第二章全是關(guān)于生物系統(tǒng)的增長(zhǎng)——從微生物到紅杉林，從人類(lèi)到恐龍。（順道一提，你知道霸王龍只比雄性非洲象稍大一點(diǎn)，而絳蟲(chóng)的壽命能長(zhǎng)達(dá)25年嗎？）這一章我最喜歡的部分是斯米爾關(guān)于食物生產(chǎn)的討論，這對(duì)我們基金會(huì)在農(nóng)業(yè)方面的工作很有啟發(fā)意義，并且很好地解釋了生產(chǎn)率提高的合理數(shù)值。

In chapter 3, he lands on a topic he knows better than just about anyone else: the development and diffusion of new sources of energy—from traditional water wheels to nuclear reactors. He has covered a lot of this terrain in previous books such as his masterful Energy and Civilization. But here he’s setting the stage for subsequent chapters on technological developments that were made possible by the conversion of resources like water, wind, carbon, and solar radiation into energy.

在第三章中，他談到了一個(gè)他比任何人都更了解的話題：從傳統(tǒng)的水輪機(jī)到核反應(yīng)堆，新能源的開(kāi)發(fā)和擴(kuò)散。在之前的書(shū)籍中（比如《能源與文明》），他已經(jīng)探索了很多這方面的內(nèi)容。但在這本書(shū)里，這些內(nèi)容為后面幾章講技術(shù)發(fā)展奠定了基礎(chǔ)，這些技術(shù)發(fā)展是通過(guò)將水、風(fēng)、碳和太陽(yáng)輻射等資源轉(zhuǎn)化為能源而得以實(shí)現(xiàn)的。

When I read chapters 4 (artifacts, such as cathedrals, cars, and computers) and 5 (societies and economies), I had to marvel over how Smil’s mind works. The way he synthesizes information from dozens of different domains is amazing. I also marveled over all the miracles that modern civilization is built on, including power grids, water systems, air transportation, and computing. The book gave me new appreciation for how many smart people had to try things out, make mistakes, and eventually succeed.

當(dāng)我讀到第四章（例如大教堂、汽車(chē)和計(jì)算機(jī)等人造事物）和第五章（社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)體）時(shí)，我不得不驚嘆于斯米爾的思維。他從幾十個(gè)不同領(lǐng)域綜合信息的方式令人驚嘆。我也驚嘆于現(xiàn)代文明賴以建立的所有奇跡，包括電網(wǎng)、水系統(tǒng)、航空運(yùn)輸和計(jì)算機(jī)。這本書(shū)令我對(duì)無(wú)數(shù)聰明人在嘗試和犯錯(cuò)后最終取得成功，產(chǎn)生了新的理解和欣賞。

Smil’s goal for these chapters is to show that no matter what domain you’re talking about, eventually you hit growth limits. Steel, the backbone of modern economies, is a great example. After many years of metallurgical and mechanical innovation, we’re simply not able to make it a lot cheaper or with a lot less energy. Ultimately, his analysis shows that what we’re trying to do in terms of changing our physical economy and the energy flows upon which it is built would be unprecedented in our history.

斯米爾寫(xiě)這些章節(jié)是為了表明，無(wú)論你在談?wù)撌裁搭I(lǐng)域，你最終都會(huì)達(dá)到增長(zhǎng)極限。鋼鐵——現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱，就是一個(gè)很好的例子。經(jīng)過(guò)多年的冶金和機(jī)械革新，我們就是無(wú)法使它的成本大幅下降，或大幅減少消耗的能源。歸根結(jié)底，他的分析表明，我們?cè)谠噲D改變我們的物質(zhì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和建立它所仰仗的能源流動(dòng)，而這在我們的歷史上還并沒(méi)有成功的先例。

In chapter 6 and in a brief coda, Smil sounds less like an academic than an activist. He concludes that“treating the biosphere as a mere assembly…of goods and services to be exploited (and used as a dumping ground) with impunity—must change in radical ways.”

在第六章和簡(jiǎn)短的結(jié)尾里，斯米爾看起來(lái)不像是一個(gè)學(xué)者，而更像是一個(gè)活動(dòng)家。他得出的結(jié)論是：“把生物圈僅僅當(dāng)作一個(gè)商品和服務(wù)的集合……不受懲罰地開(kāi)發(fā)，并把它當(dāng)作傾倒場(chǎng)的做法，必須以激進(jìn)的方式加以改變。”

I don’t agree with all of his analysis. In particular, I’m more optimistic than he is about the degree to which today’s renewable energy technologies can be deployed, and the pace at which scientists and engineers will develop new clean sources. In my view, Smil underestimates our accelerating ability to model the physical world using digital technologies equipped with artificial intelligence. For example, future generations of clean energy will be designed and tested in computers, not on paper, before we try them in the world—a process that will speed up innovation in a dramatic way.

我并不認(rèn)同他的所有分析。特別是在如今可再生能源技術(shù)的應(yīng)用程度，以及科學(xué)家和工程師開(kāi)發(fā)新式清潔能源的速度上，我比他都更加樂(lè)觀。在我看來(lái)，斯米爾低估了我們的加速能力，這將通過(guò)使用配備了人工智能的數(shù)字技術(shù)模擬物理世界而實(shí)現(xiàn)。例如，未來(lái)幾代的清潔能源將在被投入真實(shí)世界試用之前，先在計(jì)算機(jī)上（而不是在圖紙上）進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)和測(cè)試——這一過(guò)程將極大地加速創(chuàng)新。

But I’ve always felt that Smil’s great strength isn’t predicting the future, it’s documenting the past. There’s great value in that—you can’t see what’s coming next if you don’t understand what’s come before. Nobody sees the big picture with as wide an aperture as Vaclav Smil.

但我一直覺(jué)得，斯米爾的強(qiáng)項(xiàng)并不是預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)，而是記錄過(guò)去。這是很有價(jià)值的——如果你不了解過(guò)去發(fā)生了什么，你就看不到未來(lái)會(huì)發(fā)生什么。沒(méi)有人能像瓦科拉夫·斯米爾一樣，用如此廣博的視角看見(jiàn)全面的情況。